Text Tropical Weather Outlook

Before there was a graphical Tropical Weather Oulook, there was this text version, which can now be used together with the new graphical product. The text contains a meteorological discussion about the likelihood that tropical disturbances flagged for investigation will develop into tropical cyclones.

In the discussion (below), Item No. 1 corresponds to the disturbance at the center of the graphical product labeled "1" and circled in orange, indicating "medium probability of development." The text explains why. It states that "upper-level winds are not favorable" and projects the likely fate of the disturbance, but makes note of a circumstance that could result in development.

Item No. 2 corresponds to the disturbance labeled "2" in the graphical product and circled in yellow, indicating "low probability." The text simply notes that "upper-level winds are unfavorable for development" of that system.

000
ABNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The newest version of this text product also includes the same HIGH-MEDIUM-LOW probability of genesis scale as presented in the graphical product.

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