Track Forecast Interpretation

Interpreting Track Forecast Uncertainty

The track forecast is a prediction of the future motion (direction and speed) of a hurricane. Two different types of information are communicated in a track forecast: first, a prediction of where the storm will be and when it will be there; and second, the fact that there will be a degree of uncertainty in the storm's motion.

The uncertainty term is an essential part of the track forecast, necessary because it is not possible to anticipate the motion of hurricanes exactly and probably never will be. The science, though highly advanced, is not perfect, and the public needs to know this in order to make informed decisions in the face of approaching storms.

Hurricane forecasters have come up with a number of ways to communicate the forecast storm positions together with the uncertainty in those forecasts. The official releases that contain this information are the hurricane track forecast products.

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