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Hurricane Forecast Terminology Reference for Non-Scientists

Overheard in the National Media During Hurricane Season

     2010

     2009

Self-Test Question Sets

     Baseline Set
     Primary Set #1
     Primary Set #2
     Secondary Set #1
     Secondary Set #2
     Tertiary Set #1

Forecast Interpretation Tutorial

     Expectations

               Expectations and the State of the Science
               Types of Hurricane Forecasts
               Hurricane Forecast Error
               Scientific Advancements and Limitations

     Forecasts

          Track

                    Track Forecast Uncertainty
                    The Cone of Uncertainty
                    Cone Construction
                    Track Forecast Interpretation Guidelines

          Intensity

                    Sources of Intensity Forecast Uncertainty
                    Intensity as a Broad Directional Estimate
                    Estimates of Hurricane Intensity
                    Rapid Intensification

          Size

                    Size Forecast Interpretation
                    Hurricane Quadrants
                    Wind Radii / Size Forecasts

     Landfall

          Watch

                    Landfalling Hurricanes
                    Interpretation of Hurricane Watches and Warnings
                    Watch/Warning Breakpoints

          Wind

                    Interpreting Forecasts for Wind Speeds at Specific Locations
                    Text Wind Speed Probabilities Forecast

     Outlooks

          Genesis

                    Hurricane Genesis Outlook Interpretation
                    Text Tropical Weather Outlook

          Seasonal

                    Seasonal Outlook Interpretation
                    ENSO and the Seasonal Hurricane Outlook

     Hurricane Science Myths

          Probabalistic

                    Hurricane Steering
                    Hurricane Benchmarking
                    Scientific Forecasting Capabilities

          Geographical

                    Inland Myths
                    The Gulf Stream Myth
                    The Shape of Coastline Myth
                    The Northern Latitudes Myth

     Surge

               Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation
               Storm Surge Basins
               Surge Heights
               Hurricane Evacuation Zones

Hurricane Dialogues: The Lessons of Ike and Charley

          #1 Lessons of Ike: Limitations of the Saffir-Simpson Categories
          #2 Lessons of Charley: The Limits of Hurricane Forecast Precision

Gulf Coast Photo Gallery

          Coastal Mississippi Immediately After Hurricane Katrina
          Galveston and Vicinity One Year After Hurricane Ike
          New Orleans Four Years After Hurricane Katrina
          Galveston Before Hurricane Ike
          Coastal Mississippi Three Years After Hurricane Katrina
          Historic Indianola
          Louisiana's Coastal Wetlands
          Key West, Florida